As the housing market slows down because mortgage rates are going up so quickly, home prices are also slowing down. And if you read the news, you’ve probably seen a wide range of opinions calling for everything from home prices to go down to home prices to keep going up. What’s the truth? What’s the most likely thing to happen next?
Even though people have different ideas, the most likely outcome is that we’ll end up somewhere between a slight rise and a slight fall. Here are the most up-to-date predictions from experts to give you the best information possible right now.
What the experts have to say about next year’s home prices
The graph below shows the most recent predictions made by five experts in the housing market. These are the experts whose predictions have been most recently updated based on current market trends:
The graph illustrates that experts expect home prices to continue rising, albeit more slowly than in recent years. The graph’s red bars show experts predicting house price declines.
Taking the average (shown in green) of all five estimates, national house price appreciation will likely be flat next year.
What’s the point?
Experts don’t agree on what will happen in 2023. In some markets, home prices will probably go down a little, while in others, they will continue to rise. It all depends on how hot your local market has been in recent years, how many homes are on the market now, how much demand there is, and more.
The good news is that home prices are expected to rise at more normal rates very soon. Wells Fargo’s most recent forecast shows that they think prices will go down in 2023, but they think prices will go up and be net positive in 2024. This prediction says that the value of the currency will go up by 3.1% in 2024, which is much closer to the long-term average of 4% annual appreciation.
And the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics, which is a poll of more than 100 industry experts, predicts that home prices will continue to rise by about 2.6% to 4% from 2024 to 2026. This shows that even if prices go down a little next year, this isn’t likely to be a long-term trend.
Jason Lewris, Parcl’s co-founder and chief data officer, says:
“In the absence of reliable, up-to-date information, fear, uncertainty, and doubt are driving more and more real estate decisions.”
Don’t let fear or doubt stop you from doing what you want to do. If you don’t know where prices are going or how to make sense of what’s happening in today’s housing market, talk to a local real estate agent. They can help you every step of the way.
The housing market is changing, and right now it’s hard to know what’s going on. The best way to deal with this change is to get help from a trusted real estate professional who can help you make decisions about what’s happening in your market that you can feel good about.